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Nuez 2026
“El mercado empieza a girar desde remanentes baratos hacia disponibilidad real de producto fresco.”
2026 vs 2025
en calibre 36+
de calibres 36+
2026/27
2026/27
base in-shell 26/27
de Chile en India
India FY25-26
El mercado global de nuez lleva varios años en un ciclo de precios deprimidos, resultado directo de una expansión de superficie que superó la capacidad de absorción de la demanda. Entre 2015 y 2022, se plantó en forma agresiva respondiendo a precios atractivos del momento. Ese volumen llegó a producción plena justo cuando China, con más de 800,000 hectáreas propias, se convirtió en exportador neto a escala industrial. Como resultado de ello, nos encontramos con una sobreoferta de fondo, márgenes negativos en los orígenes tradicionales y una presión de precio que hoy fuerza a la remoción de huertos sin intención de replantar.
Este fenómeno de remoción de huertos, en California tiene una particularidad más: el 25% de los huertos californianos tiene más de 25 años, huertos que se acercan al final de su vida económica útil sin reemplazo planificado. El resultado directo: California proyecta una cosecha 2026/27 de ~670,000 MT inshell (-8.7%) y un carryout hacia la nueva temporada que será uno de los más bajos en años.
Chile replica el mismo patrón. La superficie plantada declinó en los últimos cuatro anos, por las mismas razones: precios que no cubren costos, huertos viejos que se retiran y productores que no encuentran justificación económica para replantar. La cosecha 2026 quedó estimada en 160,000-165,000 MT inshell (-10%), con una curva de calibres sesgada hacia el segmento de calibres medianos. La escasez de calibres 34+ no es solo por factores climáticos: es la consecuencia directa de huertos envejecidos que producen fruta más chica.
Por su lado, China sigue creciendo en volumen (+6.7%), pero hoy su canal de distribución hacia Irán y Medio Oriente está interrumpido por el cierre del Estrecho de Hormuz, y la calidad de la cosecha 2025 restante se deteriora. India, el mayor importador del mundo, acumuló stock americano antes de la temporada chilena. Cuando ese inventario se agote, la demanda del mercado más grande del mundo entrará con otra intensidad. Ese es el punto de inflexión que este reporte intenta leer.
Para compradores industriales el precio del inshell no es el parámetro relevante — lo que importa es el costo efectivo por kilo de kernel procesable en planta.
El mercado está en un punto de inflexión. Lo que pase en el segundo semestre depende de qué variables se activen y cuándo.
Del lado de la oferta, el ajuste ya ocurrió. California vendió agresivamente una cosecha grande y llega a 2026/27 con poco stock teóricamente. Chile cosechó menos, con calibres sesgados hacia el segmento mediano a chico de la curva de calibres. Argentina crece pero desde una base pequeña. China sigue siendo el origen dominante en volumen, pero su canal hacia Medio Oriente hoy está interrumpido y la calidad de la cosecha 2025 restante se deteriora. La oferta disponible de producto fresco y de calidad es más ajustada de lo que los números globales sugieren.
Del lado de la demanda, la pregunta es de timing. India acumuló stock americano que se agota, y cuando vuelva al mercado con volumen lo hará sobre una oferta chilena que ya no tiene excedentes de calibres grandes. Europa prefiere producto fresco del hemisferio sur para la segunda mitad del año. Rusia opera de forma intermitente pero su presencia en calibres grandes tiene efecto inmediato sobre el precio. Si esas demandas convergen al mismo tiempo, el cuadro cambia rápido.
de que Europa entre
34-36 / 36+
El precio sube con fuerza.
30-34 / 32-34
consiguen calibres grandes bajan un calibre.
pero a otro precio.
hacia Medio Oriente
34-36 / 36+
pero sin India activa el soporte es limitado.
30-34 / 32-34
vuelve a los mercados industriales.
traduce en mejora de precio porque la demanda no acompaña.
pero sin convergencia
34-36 / 36+
apriete del Escenario 1.
30-34 / 32-34
industriales limita la suba.
pero el precio de mayo va a parecer bueno en retrospectiva.
Nuez 2026
“El mercado empieza a girar desde remanentes baratos hacia disponibilidad real de producto fresco.”
2026 vs 2025
en calibre 36+
de calibres 36+
2026/27
2026/27
base in-shell 26/27
de Chile en India
India FY25-26
El mercado global de nuez lleva varios años en un ciclo de precios deprimidos, resultado directo de una expansión de superficie que superó la capacidad de absorción de la demanda. Entre 2015 y 2022, se plantó en forma agresiva respondiendo a precios atractivos del momento. Ese volumen llegó a producción plena justo cuando China, con más de 800,000 hectáreas propias, se convirtió en exportador neto a escala industrial. Como resultado de ello, nos encontramos con una sobreoferta de fondo, márgenes negativos en los orígenes tradicionales y una presión de precio que hoy fuerza a la remoción de huertos sin intención de replantar.
Este fenómeno de remoción de huertos, en California tiene una particularidad más: el 25% de los huertos californianos tiene más de 25 años, huertos que se acercan al final de su vida económica útil sin reemplazo planificado. El resultado directo: California proyecta una cosecha 2026/27 de ~670,000 MT inshell (-8.7%) y un carryout hacia la nueva temporada que será uno de los más bajos en años.
Chile replica el mismo patrón. La superficie plantada declinó en los últimos cuatro anos, por las mismas razones: precios que no cubren costos, huertos viejos que se retiran y productores que no encuentran justificación económica para replantar. La cosecha 2026 quedó estimada en 160,000-165,000 MT inshell (-10%), con una curva de calibres sesgada hacia el segmento de calibres medianos. La escasez de calibres 34+ no es solo por factores climáticos: es la consecuencia directa de huertos envejecidos que producen fruta más chica.
Por su lado, China sigue creciendo en volumen (+6.7%), pero hoy su canal de distribución hacia Irán y Medio Oriente está interrumpido por el cierre del Estrecho de Hormuz, y la calidad de la cosecha 2025 restante se deteriora. India, el mayor importador del mundo, acumuló stock americano antes de la temporada chilena. Cuando ese inventario se agote, la demanda del mercado más grande del mundo entrará con otra intensidad. Ese es el punto de inflexión que este reporte intenta leer.
Para compradores industriales el precio del inshell no es el parámetro relevante — lo que importa es el costo efectivo por kilo de kernel procesable en planta.
El mercado está en un punto de inflexión. Lo que pase en el segundo semestre depende de qué variables se activen y cuándo.
Del lado de la oferta, el ajuste ya ocurrió. California vendió agresivamente una cosecha grande y llega a 2026/27 con poco stock teóricamente. Chile cosechó menos, con calibres sesgados hacia el segmento mediano a chico de la curva de calibres. Argentina crece pero desde una base pequeña. China sigue siendo el origen dominante en volumen, pero su canal hacia Medio Oriente hoy está interrumpido y la calidad de la cosecha 2025 restante se deteriora. La oferta disponible de producto fresco y de calidad es más ajustada de lo que los números globales sugieren.
Del lado de la demanda, la pregunta es de timing. India acumuló stock americano que se agota, y cuando vuelva al mercado con volumen lo hará sobre una oferta chilena que ya no tiene excedentes de calibres grandes. Europa prefiere producto fresco del hemisferio sur para la segunda mitad del año. Rusia opera de forma intermitente pero su presencia en calibres grandes tiene efecto inmediato sobre el precio. Si esas demandas convergen al mismo tiempo, el cuadro cambia rápido.
de que Europa entre
34-36 / 36+
El precio sube con fuerza.
30-34 / 32-34
consiguen calibres grandes bajan un calibre.
pero a otro precio.
hacia Medio Oriente
34-36 / 36+
pero sin India activa el soporte es limitado.
30-34 / 32-34
vuelve a los mercados industriales.
traduce en mejora de precio porque la demanda no acompaña.
pero sin convergencia
34-36 / 36+
apriete del Escenario 1.
30-34 / 32-34
industriales limita la suba.
pero el precio de mayo va a parecer bueno en retrospectiva.
Market 2026
“The market is beginning to rotate from cheap carry-over inventory toward genuine availability of fresh crop.”
2026 vs 2025
in 36+ size grade
of 36+ size grades
2026/27
2026/27
inshell base 26/27
in India
FY25-26
The global walnut market has been in a depressed price cycle for several years — the direct result of a planting expansion that outpaced demand absorption capacity. Between 2015 and 2022, orchards were planted aggressively in response to attractive prices at the time. That volume reached full production just as China, with over 800,000 hectares of its own orchards, became a net exporter at industrial scale. The outcome: a structural oversupply, negative margins across traditional origins, and a price pressure that is now forcing orchard removals with no intention to replant.
This orchard removal trend has a particular dimension in California: 25% of California's orchards are over 25 years old, approaching the end of their economic useful life with no planned replacement. The direct result: California projects a 2026/27 crop of ~670,000 MT inshell (-8.7%) and a carry-out into the new season that will be among the lowest in years.
Chile follows the same pattern. Planted area has declined over the past four years for the same reasons: prices that do not cover costs, aging orchards being removed, and producers who find no economic justification to replant. The 2026 crop came in at 160,000–165,000 MT inshell (-10%), with size distribution skewed toward smaller grades — 36+ represents less than 8% of the crop and 34+ does not exceed 30%. This scarcity at the top of the size range is not weather-related: it is the direct consequence of aging orchards producing smaller fruit.
China continues to grow in volume (+6.7%), but its distribution channel toward Iran and the Middle East is disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the quality of remaining 2025 crop is deteriorating. India — the world's largest importer — accumulated American stock ahead of the Chilean season. When that inventory runs out, the structural demand of the world's largest market will return with full force. That is the inflection point this report aims to read with precision.
Market signals at the close of May do not all point in the same direction. What follows is GST's reading of what is happening, what is yet to be resolved, and where the real risks lie for the second half of the year.
For industrial buyers, the inshell price is not the relevant parameter — what matters is the effective cost per kilo of processable kernel at the plant.
The Argentine crop reaches the market between April and June — before Chilean volume is available in quantity and when California no longer has surplus. Argentine Chandler 2026 operates in 32–34 and 34–36 mm size grades with strong color and moisture indicators, shipped through Chilean ports with established logistics. For European buyers looking to diversify origin and secure fresh product for the second half of the year, Argentina offers a supply window that does not compete with Chile — it complements it.
Argentina does not have Chile's volume problem — it has a visibility problem. Buyers diversifying origins are paying closer attention to the Southern Hemisphere than in previous seasons. The 2026 season is a concrete opportunity to build credibility — not to maximize price in a single operation, but to get onto the supplier list of buyers who in 2027 will need more than one origin.
India is the medium-term market for Argentine walnuts. Phytosanitary negotiations between SENASA and Indian authorities are at an advanced stage. For almonds, pistachios and dried plums, access already exists today. The time to build presence is before formal authorization is finalized — the market already knows Chilean product; Argentina's task is to build its own identity before others do it first.
GST works directly with producers in Mendoza and San Juan and has active operations for the 2026 season in Europe, Turkey and India.
The market is at an inflection point. What happens in the second half depends on which variables activate — and when.
On the supply side, the adjustment has already happened. California sold aggressively off a large crop and enters 2026/27 with theoretically little stock. Chile harvested less, with size distribution skewed toward the mid-to-small end of the curve. Argentina is growing but from a small base. China remains the dominant origin by volume, but its channel to the Middle East is currently disrupted and the quality of remaining 2025 crop is deteriorating. Available supply of fresh, quality product is tighter than global headline numbers suggest.
On the demand side, the question is one of timing. India accumulated American stock that is running out, and when it returns to the market with volume it will do so against a Chilean supply that no longer has large-grade surpluses. Europe prefers fresh Southern Hemisphere product for the second half of the year. Russia operates intermittently but its presence in large grades has an immediate price effect. If those demand streams converge at the same time, the picture changes fast.
before Europe enters
34–36 / 36+
Price moves up sharply.
30–34 / 32–34
large grades trade down one size.
Middle East channel
34–36 / 36+
but without active India the support is limited.
30–34 / 32–34
returns to industrial markets.
into price improvement because demand does not follow.
but without convergence
34–36 / 36+
squeeze moment of Scenario 1.
30–34 / 32–34
destinations limits any upside.
but May prices will look good in hindsight.
Market 2026
“The market is beginning to rotate from cheap carry-over inventory toward genuine availability of fresh crop.”
2026 vs 2025
in 36+ size grade
of 36+ size grades
2026/27
2026/27
inshell base 26/27
in India
FY25-26
The global walnut market has been in a depressed price cycle for several years — the direct result of a planting expansion that outpaced demand absorption capacity. Between 2015 and 2022, orchards were planted aggressively in response to attractive prices at the time. That volume reached full production just as China, with over 800,000 hectares of its own orchards, became a net exporter at industrial scale. The outcome: a structural oversupply, negative margins across traditional origins, and a price pressure that is now forcing orchard removals with no intention to replant.
This orchard removal trend has a particular dimension in California: 25% of California's orchards are over 25 years old, approaching the end of their economic useful life with no planned replacement. The direct result: California projects a 2026/27 crop of ~670,000 MT inshell (-8.7%) and a carry-out into the new season that will be among the lowest in years.
Chile follows the same pattern. Planted area has declined over the past four years for the same reasons: prices that do not cover costs, aging orchards being removed, and producers who find no economic justification to replant. The 2026 crop came in at 160,000–165,000 MT inshell (-10%), with size distribution skewed toward smaller grades — 36+ represents less than 8% of the crop and 34+ does not exceed 30%. This scarcity at the top of the size range is not weather-related: it is the direct consequence of aging orchards producing smaller fruit.
China continues to grow in volume (+6.7%), but its distribution channel toward Iran and the Middle East is disrupted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the quality of remaining 2025 crop is deteriorating. India — the world's largest importer — accumulated American stock ahead of the Chilean season. When that inventory runs out, the structural demand of the world's largest market will return with full force. That is the inflection point this report aims to read with precision.
Market signals at the close of May do not all point in the same direction. What follows is GST's reading of what is happening, what is yet to be resolved, and where the real risks lie for the second half of the year.
For industrial buyers, the inshell price is not the relevant parameter — what matters is the effective cost per kilo of processable kernel at the plant.
The Argentine crop reaches the market between April and June — before Chilean volume is available in quantity and when California no longer has surplus. Argentine Chandler 2026 operates in 32–34 and 34–36 mm size grades with strong color and moisture indicators, shipped through Chilean ports with established logistics. For European buyers looking to diversify origin and secure fresh product for the second half of the year, Argentina offers a supply window that does not compete with Chile — it complements it.
Argentina does not have Chile's volume problem — it has a visibility problem. Buyers diversifying origins are paying closer attention to the Southern Hemisphere than in previous seasons. The 2026 season is a concrete opportunity to build credibility — not to maximize price in a single operation, but to get onto the supplier list of buyers who in 2027 will need more than one origin.
India is the medium-term market for Argentine walnuts. Phytosanitary negotiations between SENASA and Indian authorities are at an advanced stage. For almonds, pistachios and dried plums, access already exists today. The time to build presence is before formal authorization is finalized — the market already knows Chilean product; Argentina's task is to build its own identity before others do it first.
GST works directly with producers in Mendoza and San Juan and has active operations for the 2026 season in Europe, Turkey and India.
The market is at an inflection point. What happens in the second half depends on which variables activate — and when.
On the supply side, the adjustment has already happened. California sold aggressively off a large crop and enters 2026/27 with theoretically little stock. Chile harvested less, with size distribution skewed toward the mid-to-small end of the curve. Argentina is growing but from a small base. China remains the dominant origin by volume, but its channel to the Middle East is currently disrupted and the quality of remaining 2025 crop is deteriorating. Available supply of fresh, quality product is tighter than global headline numbers suggest.
On the demand side, the question is one of timing. India accumulated American stock that is running out, and when it returns to the market with volume it will do so against a Chilean supply that no longer has large-grade surpluses. Europe prefers fresh Southern Hemisphere product for the second half of the year. Russia operates intermittently but its presence in large grades has an immediate price effect. If those demand streams converge at the same time, the picture changes fast.
before Europe enters
34–36 / 36+
Price moves up sharply.
30–34 / 32–34
large grades trade down one size.
Middle East channel
34–36 / 36+
but without active India the support is limited.
30–34 / 32–34
returns to industrial markets.
into price improvement because demand does not follow.
but without convergence
34–36 / 36+
squeeze moment of Scenario 1.
30–34 / 32–34
destinations limits any upside.
but May prices will look good in hindsight.